Pickups of the Day: The Injury Replacements

20131122 Injured Pickups

This season I will highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

Last night was a brutal night for a few legit title contenders. First, Marc Gasol left his game with an MCL sprain in his left knee. Then Derrick Rose left with a possibly heartbreaking ACL tear in his previously healthy right knee. Finally, in the last game of the night, Andre Iguodala left after he felt his left hamstring pop. All three were scheduled to have MRIs today that will determine the extent of their damage.

2:33pm PST Update: The Chicago Bulls are reporting that Derrick Rose tore the medial meniscus in his right knee. He is out indefinitely, but this is much better news than an ACL tear. Medial meniscus tears are even quicker to heal than lateral meniscus tears, which is the injury that kept Russell Westbrook out from April 26 to November 2. All things considered, it’s pretty good news as we have a chance of seeing him again this season.

3:00pm PST Update: USA TODAY’s Sam Amick is reporting that Andre Iguodala will not need surgery to repair his hamstring. There is no timeline for his return.

The entire playoff landscape (and one former MVP’s career) has possibly shifted in one night. The fortunes of those fantasy owners who drafted these three players may have as well. On the other hand, new opportunities have also arisen for the players behind the injured ones on their teams’ rotations.

There’s no point in posting any of these newly promoted players’ stat lines from last night, since we’re not interested in any of them for what they did but rather what they might do in the future. Again, until we hear how each MRI comes back later today, we don’t know for sure how much value each of these players actually will have. Based on the information we have now, though, here’s a look at how legit each is:

Draymond Green, GS – SF (1% owned)
Andre Iguodala said he felt a pop and “can’t even walk” following last night’s game. He also added that he “knew it was serious.” That is awful news for a team that has vastly improved its defense in large part due to Iguodala and a healthy Andrew Bogut. The biggest beneficiary of Iggy’s absence will be Harrison Barnes. At 66% owned, he’s not likely to be available in many of your leagues, but he should be 100% owned now that he’ll be a permanent fixture in the starting line-up.

However, another player in line for an increased role who is almost universally available in Yahoo! Leagues is Draymond Green. He should now be the first player off the bench until Toney Douglas returns, and then the first wing off the bench after that. Green has already been a much more efficient scorer this year than he was as a rookie last year, and he played his most minutes of the season tonight (27) with both Curry out and Iggy leaving the game.

Having Green as the first man off the bench is a huge dropoff for Golden State from last year, when their first two off the bench were Carl Landry and Jarrett Jack. Nonetheless, he’s still their best option at this point, and he could become a useful fantasy asset if he continues his upward production in more minutes.

Kosta Koufos, Mem – PF,C (13% owned)
Marc Gasol is the only one to have his diagnosis reported so far. He has a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee. Estimates of how long he’ll be out range from 6-8 weeks to 10-12 weeks. For comparison, the Grizzlies lost Zach Randolph last year to a slight MCL tear for 10 weeks. Despite also trading Rudy Gay during that time frame, the Grizzlies somehow went 23-14. Such a run now would be unexpected without Gasol, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and best post passer this side of Kevin Love (and apparently also Josh McRoberts).

Either way, Gasol will be out for a while. Kosta Koufos will start in his place, though Ed Davis is also very talented and will get some additional burn. After Barnes, Koufos has the most to gain from this promotion. As I described on Tuesday, he’s been able to put up decent stats even in limited minutes this year, and he had spurts last year in Denver where he provided a lot of value in the elusive blocks category.

Unlike Barnes, Koufos is very likely to be available in your league’s free agent pool. Pick him up with confidence and expect some good rebounding and block numbers

Kirk Hinrich, Chi – PG,SG (16% owned)
As terrible as Iguodala and Gasol’s injuries were, the most soul-crushing one of the night may have to be the one to Derrick Rose. After tearing his left ACL in the 2012 playoffs and controversially sitting out the entire 2012-13 season, the former MVP was primed to make a triumphant comeback this year. He had already been struggling to get back into form, but now there’s a possibility that he’s also torn his right ACL, which would finish him for the rest of this season as well.

This would throw the entire Bulls’ franchise plans out of whack. In the much more top-heavy Eastern Conference, the Bulls were considered an early title favorite along with the Pacers and Heat. Even THE title favorite by some fanatical sports fans with notoriously deranged logic. Now, with the possibility of a Greg Oden-like career-altering series of injuries, the Bulls may look into breaking up their team to shed salary and acquire future picks.

2:33pm PST Update: Okay, we can turn off the alarms for now. It’s a medial meniscus tear. We might see Rose back later this season.

In the meantime, we’ll take the conservative path and assume Rose will just miss some time and the roster will remain the same. In this case, Kirk Hinrich will be the biggest beneficiary. I had already previously mentioned that, while Mike Dunleavy will get the start in place of Jimmy Butler, Hinrich will also get plenty of minutes and may outplay Dunleavy. Well, he definitely did more tonight, though obviously much of that was also due to Rose’s exit.

Hinrich will get you steals and assists, but his shooting has been terrible, and he doesn’t take or make as many threes as he did earlier in his career. If the Bulls really do lose Rose for the long-term, expect them to also take a good, hard look at Marquise Teague as well at PG. However, for now, Hinrich is the man.

Other Notable Players: If tonight were a normal, positive night in the NBA, Caron Butler would easily be the Pickup of the Day with his 38-8-3-3 and four 3’s night. He was already playing well before his shoulder injury and has now come back strong. Even with Ersan Ilyasova back as well, Butler has good value…James Anderson is already on a lot of fantasy rosters, but I couldn’t bring myself to trust him. However, now with Tony Wroten injured, Anderson should gain more consistency by claiming a lot of the shots that used to go to Wroten…Major dropoff game for Martell Webster, but believe he’ll usually do much better than that in 41 min. He graduates from our little camp tonight, though, as he climbs up to 41% owned…Another effective game for Terrence Ross in 24 min. Just keep an eye on him in case any of the Rudy Gay or DeMar DeRozan trade rumors come to fruition…Eric Bledsoe missed another game. Despite an inefficient night, anyone who owns Gerald Green should continue playing him until more news about Bledsoe comes out. Captain Obvious, out…In his last four games, Channing Frye has gone (in points-rebounds-threes) 20-3-5, 0-1-0, 17-9-3 and 13-5-2, and then before that were five games of single-digit scoring. I don’t think his value is necessarily tied to Bledsoe’s absence, so he’s still too unreliable for me…So Markieff Morris is the good twin again?…Josh McRoberts: 10-6-5 with two 3’s. And a stinky 40.0% FG. Of course. The adventure continues…Jordan Crawford hasn’t been mentioned in this space for a while because he’s actually been rather terrible lately, killing fantasy owners in FG% while not nearly producing as many assists to compensate. The assists still weren’t there tonight, but he made a comeback in the scoring column with 24 pts on 10/12 from the field. His six turnovers were his worst of the season, however…Coach’s pet Matt Dellavedova got the start, but Jarrett Jack produced. Even Dion Waiters chipped in…Andray Blatche didn’t play nearly as much as I expected, but he still managed to get some garbage time stats…All the Nets starters were pulled early in this blow-out by Minnesota, but my heavily touted Pickup Shaun Livingston especially stunk. He shot 0 for 7 from the floor and 1 for 2 from the line to go with 3 reb, 1 stll, 1 tov and nothing else. Obviously don’t give up on him yet because he’ll remain the starter while Deron Williams will miss Sunday’s game and isn’t likely to return soon, but two pitiful shooting games in a row is a worrying follow-up to such a strong week last week…That’s three good games in a row for Marvin Williams (avg 16.3 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.7 3’s), who suddenly has developed some three-point range…Between John Lucas III still starting and Trey Burke’s return, it looks like Diante Garrett’s opportunity at fantasy relevance is over, which is a shame because with 7 points, 8 assists, 1 three, and a perfect 3 for 3 from the field in just 16 min…While teammate Steve Blake has been blowing up since Nash left the line-up, Jordan Farmar has struggled. Until tonight. Farmar put up 14 pts, 8 ast and 2 3’s in just 19 min and played a key role, along with Nick Young (more on him in a second), in the Lakers’ bench vastly outplaying Golden State’s. Blake will continue dominating the PG position for the foreseeable future, but this should remind you that the Lakers have a competent third-string quarterback in the event that something happens to Blake…Young puts up the most skeletal scoring lines I’ve seen. Still, over his last three he is averaging 19.3 pts, 1.3 stl, 2.3 3’s, 50.0% FG, 73.3% FT and virtually nothing else. That’s a solid SG to have in your fantasy line-up. Just remember that his shot has a history of disappearing, and, when that happens, Young gives you absolutely nothing else.

Top 5 Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):

1. Kosta Koufos (13%)
2. Mo Williams (26%)
3. Jared Sullinger (32%)
4. Jodie Meeks (27%)
5. Caron Butler (28%)

Today we have to say goodbye to Martell Webster, as he graduates to the 41% owned plateau. Meanwhile, Koufos’s high potential and new opportunity pushes him to the top of our list, and Butler’s huge game moves him into the five-spot.

Hindsight: I don’t believe in DeMarre Carroll’s talent, but the guy does keep producing…Told you all Khris Middleton’s days on your roster should be over until the next SF injury…I’m starting to feel like I just got talked into all the John Henson hype…Yes, I do still believe in Shaun Livingston, Luke Ridnour … and Zaza Pachulia (dun dun duuunnnnnn!).

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