Pickup of the Day: Jodie Meeks


(AP Photo / Ross D. Franklin)

This season I will highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

The Sneaky Fantasy Basketball Pickup for Monday, December 23 is Jodie Meeks. He’s owned in 26% of Yahoo! Leagues and 13.8% of ESPN Leagues. Much more press following Kobe Bryant’s injury has been given to Xavier Henry playing the point, Jordan Farmar’s return, and Nick Young’s general swagginess, but Meeks has quietly outperformed all non-Pau Gasol Lakers lately with a combination of threes, good percentages, and steals.

It’s been eight days since we’ve recommended a player based on his previous night’s performance, but here’s a look at Meeks’s line last night against Phoenix:
20131223 Jodie Meeks

Meeks’s value collapsed during Kobe’s six-game return, but he was excellent before and now becoming excellent again now that Kobe will be wearing his custom Boswell suits on the bench for six weeks.

Here’s a breakdown of Meeks’s numbers before, during, and after Kobe:

20131223 Jodie Chart

A lot of his recent value has been due to the fact that he’s played a lot more than his usual number of minutes with injuries decimating the Lakers, but there was clearly a huge dropoff in his production when Kobe was in the line-up. Before Kobe, however, this was a guy who shot 50% from the field, 83.7% from the line and hit 2.3 threes in under 30 mpg. I don’t know if he can keep up his most recent streak of steals, but Meeks is a solid SG prospect that should become even better when a real PG, like Jordan Farmar, is setting up his shots.

Other Notable Players: Here’s the argument why Khris Middleton isn’t the Pickup: he is averaging an astounding 45 mpg over his last four games, three of which went into overtime. He also dropped 29 points in another overtime game on Dec. 6, but in those five games in between? 7.8 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.4 ast, 0.2 stl, 0.8 3pm on 36.8% FG in 28 mpg.

I’m desperately scrambling in one of my leagues after losing Brook Lopez for the year, so please excuse some fawning over mediocre or fluky big man performances possibly for the rest of the year (Re: Jordan Hill). That being said, Cody Zeller had his best game of his professional career so far last night in that overtime win against the Bucks, dropping 12-7-4-0-2 in 22 min. Somehow, Charlotte is currently the six-seed in a putrid Eastern Conference, but if their season collapses later in the year, we may see more of him. Right now, he’s not a threat to steal minutes away from either Josh McRoberts or Al Jefferson.

By the way, Lopez is actually still owned in 60% of Yahoo! Leagues despite being done for the season. Give or take a few percentage points for people who just refuse to believe news and hold out for his return, ownership percentages for guys like him, who at one point were 100% owned, are a good indicator of how many fantasy managers are mostly or completely inactive. Another example: Derrick Rose is still owned in 36% of Yahoo! leagues despite being declared out for the season a month ago. In ESPN leagues, BroLo and D-Rose are at 41.3% and 16.5% respectively, so those managers might be more active.

Another strong game for Glen Davis, while Victor Oladipo continues tumbling. Whether or not Jameer Nelson or Arron Afflalo are traded, at some point this year Oladipo will take back the reins. In the meantime, Big Baby seems like he’s the bigger staple in the line-up.

It says a lot that Lou Williams couldn’t produce in 34 minutes of an OT game. And what do we think about DeMarre Carroll’s 8-4-2-1-1 with 2 3pm? As much as I rave about Wes Johnson, I need to mention that Carroll has been a better version of him.

Brooklyn is just a terrible team, but I find it interesting that Mirza Teletovic played 30 min. 31 mpg over his last two including one with BroLo, though Teletovic is anything but consistent with his production so far.

Brandan Wright fell off, but Vince Carter stacked two nice games each around a goose egg on Dec. 20. 14.8 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.8 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.8 3pm on 57.1% FG and 80.0% FT in those four games overall.

Jeremy Lin came back, but Aaron Brooks still pushed 30 min and was good, as predicted. What’s also interesting is Terrence Jones also played 30 min, his most minutes in 10 days. He’s fallen off hard for almost two weeks now, but he was so good before that you at least need to keep an eye on him if not add him.

Kosta Koufos, Jon Leuer and Ed Davis were all so subpar that coach Dave Joerger gave 33 min to James Johnson? Johnson’s value disappears when Tayshaun Prince returns, but a return to the starting line-up might mean Koufos can once again become a double-double + blocks machine.

Just when I thought John Salmons might overtake Terrence Ross, Ross comes out, drops 23 points on 62.5% FG, and makes me look like a fool. Although once again he didn’t do more than get points and threes.

Mediocre big man alert: Timofey Mozgov dropped a double-double, but it was with Kenneth Faried out. Coach Brian Shaw expects Faried to play Friday.

Drop Jordan Hill. Some people might still believe in him, but his recent numbers indicate that coach Mike D’Antoni has no interest in playing his second-best big man consistently regardless of matchups. Also, Chris Kaman is no good again now that Gasol’s back.

And last night it was Miles Plumlee, Gerald Green and Marcus Morris who showed up for the Suns. Plumlee’s career rebounding night shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, as numerous big men have had career nights against the Lakers this year. Green however has been good three games in a row now, averaging 21 points and 5.3 threes in 28 mpg. His biggest problem this year has been staying consistent with both Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe in the line-up, and he’s doing that now. Still, who knows if he’ll be a victim of the Suns’ carousel next game.

Top Five Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (18%)
2. Jordan Farmar (14%)
3. Reggie Jackson (38%)
4. Glen Davis (37%)
5. D.J. Augustin (22%)

Goodbye Jon Leuer, hello D.J. Augustin. Augustin should probably be much higher for a guy who averaged 13.7 pts, 2.3 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.7 stl and 3.0 3pm on 50.0% FG and 80.0% FT, but I still distrust what I’m seeing from him until Kirk Hinrich returns. Though he’s certainly producing a lot more than was expected from him when Chicago picked him up. The Lakers only wish they could say the same about Kendall Marshall.

Hindsight: So I was holding on to Leuer too long. He is by far the Grizzlies’ most offensively talented big man off the bench, but his streak of seven straight double-digit scoring games did correspond to six Grizzly losses…A little over a week ago, I dropped Brandon Knight to pick back up Jordan Hill. If you want to stop reading my blog forever now, I’ll understand. In my defense, I wanted another big man because BroLo couldn’t stay healthy (and now rests in peace on our waiver wire), and I thought Knight’s FG% would sink my team. I still think his FG% will drop back off, but BK — 25.0 pts, 8.8 reb, 7.8 ast, 2.8 3pm on 45.7% FG over his last four. For someone else’s team. Damn.

And with that last nugget of coal in my stocking, I’d like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. There are no games tonight, so I’ll talk to you all again the day after #NBAXmas!

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Pickups of the Day: Figuring Out the Los Angeles Lakers

This season I will highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

There is no clear Sneaky Fantasy Basketball Pickup for Sunday, December 1. If you put a suitcase of cash in my hands and forced me to pick (I prefer that analogy to the one about a gun to my head), I’d say it’s Wesley Johnson. He’s owned in 13% of Yahoo! Leagues and 8.2% of ESPN leagues. However, I don’t want to talk just about Wesley Johnson. There is far more that needs to be said about the entire fantasy mess and goodness that is the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers play the fourth fastest pace in the league, which spreads extra value around to all their players. It might be spread a little thin, though, as only two players average over 30 mpg for the year, followed by nine others averaging over 17 mpg. For the past two weeks, the Lakers are one of only two teams that have eight players in the Top 120 of Yahoo! rankings (tied for first with Houston, three teams are tied for second with six each, and Cleveland is the worst and only team with just one–Anderson Varejao at #114 ). Those eight Top 120 players don’t even include former stud Pickups Xavier Henry and Jordan Hill or starting PG Steve Nash.

Let’s break down the team by sections to see how recent events are affecting each.

Big Men: The big story two weeks ago was how Jordan Hill had become a revelation for the Lakers, averaging 18.8 pts, 12.0 reb and 1.8 blk while shooting 61.7% FG and 89.5% FT on 19 FTs in four games. Chris Kaman got pushed back to the bench, and coach Mike D’Antoni had finally found a mobile, energetic big man to play alongside Pau Gasol, who was expected to be a dominant fantasy player sans Kobe but instead has suffered through career lows in FG% and FTA.

Well in the six games since Hill’s breakout week, he’s averaged 6.0 pts, 8.7 reb and 0.8 blk while shooting 38.6% FG and 100% FT on just 2 FTs. Things got worse for Hill last Friday as he sprained his ankle. Though he still played tonight, he was limited to just 15 min. The Lakers could’ve used more, though, as Gasol was limited by a right ankle injury of his own and will undergo an MRI tomorrow. Where was Kaman through all this? Sitting through his fourth straight “Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision” since returning from a back injury.

Who did that leave to take advantage of the opening at center? The Ragin’ Cajun Robert Sacre, who posted an eye-popping 12-7-4-2-3 line on 62.5% FG and 100% FT in a season-high 23 min. This was notably the best game by far of Sacre’s career. Another player who might’ve taken more advantage had he not fouled out tonight was opening day starting PF Shawne Williams. In the previous game when Hill sustained his injury, Williams posted an excellent 20-9-3-2-1 line with six threes.

If Gasol’s MRI results cause him to miss time, Jordan Hill will reap the biggest benefit. However, while he’s still hobbled and Kaman is in D’Antoni’s doghouse, there are definitely openings for both Sacre and Williams. Whether Hill starts at PF or C, one of the two will start alongside him and the other is bound to be the first big off the bench.

Point Guards: Of the eight Lakers in Yahoo!’s Top 120 for the past two weeks, who was the highest ranked? Surprisingly, Jordan Farmar, who averaged 14.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.0 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.6 blk and 2.6 3pm in just under 22 mpg in the five games before last night. This despite him being the backup PG to Steve Blake, who’s already a backup PG himself to the injured Steve Nash. Farmar has been so good that he’s still the Lakers’ top-ranked player of the last two weeks even after playing less than a minute last night before leaving the game with a hamstring injury.

Farmar is expected back by the Lakers’ next game on Friday, and even Nash is expected to practice on Tuesday and could also return by Friday. Yet right now Blake is the only healthy PG on the entire team, unless they decide to call Andrew Goudelock back from Russia. Blake remains the PG to own on the Lakers, especially since Farmar’s stock just got a little riskier.

Swingmen: This is where the biggest glut of fantasy value lies with the Lakers. Wesley Johnson, Jodie Meeks, Nick Young and Xavier Henry all have taken turns being the best Laker swingman of the week, and, yes, all of them are under 40% owned. Though one Laker swingman, who’s 98% owned despite not playing a single minute this year, looms over all of them. That would be Kobe Bryant, and he could return as early as Friday, although Sunday is more likely. Bringing back a player who commands that much of the offense (a polite way of saying he hogs the ball) is destined to have an impact on every player’s value, but the party is especially over for the other swingmen.

So why pick up Johnson over the others? Ignore the fact that he’s the highest Yahoo! ranked Laker of the entire season and that he’s played the most minutes of every Laker except Gasol in the past week. As I said, Kobe will change everything when he returns, so Johnson’s current accomplishments must be discounted. However, there are two main reasons to think that Johnson will still retain his value.

The first is his position. Johnson has been the Lakers’ starting SF since November 12. He should stay in the line-up when Kobe reclaims the starting SG spot, and he’s most likely to keep seeing a similar number of minutes. Second is how Johnson gets his value. Meeks, Young and Henry all get their value from scoring and threes. While Johnson also makes threes, a large part of his production is in averaging over a steal and a block per game for the year. Plus he’s a better rebounder than the other three.

When Kobe (who averaged 20.4 FGA last year even when he still had to share the ball with Dwight Howard) returns, shots will become scarce, but defensive stats will still be readily available. As long as Johnson can hit the spot-up three regularly, he can be the prototypical “3 & D” guy who’d be the perfect fit next to Kobe. That’s why he’s today’s honorary Pickup.

Other Notable Players: A few days ago, I asked when we’d finally see the Summer League MVP version of Jonas Valanciunas again. As is the case with many opposing big men, salvation came in the form of the Denver Nuggets. Valanciunas physically dominated J.J. Hickson, who only saw 14 minutes while the much larger Timofey Mozgov played 31 min and posted an awesome 16-15-1-2-2 on 50.0% FG and 66.7% FT. It was a big day overall for Mozgov, as Rudy Gay tried to Mozgov him but ended up getting LeBron’d. Hickson is a liability on defense, but–matchups aside–it’s unlikely to see him lose the start…Speaking of Denver’s bench mob, Nate Robinson has scored in double-digits in seven games in a row now, despite only once playing over 24 min (24:04 on Nov. 21). Over that time span, he’s averaging 14.6 pts, 1.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.0 stl and 2.3 3pm on 50.0% FG and 88.9% FT. He was in this same position as a bench scorer last year for the Bulls, except they were the 26th ranked team in pace, while the Nuggets this year are third in paceRookie Hollis Thompson started today while both James Anderson and Tony Wroten came off the bench. This change is likely going to stick. Thompson didn’t do much, but he does sink the fantasy values of both Anderson and Wroten…J.J. Redick will be out for the next 6-8 weeks with hand and elbow injuries, but no successor revealed himself yesterday in his absence. It certainly wasn’t Jared Dudley, who played his second-fewest minutes of his season, or Willie Green, who started in Redick’s place. If anything, it just looks like Jamal Crawford’s role will expand again…Sacramento also went bench mob on Golden State yesterday, as Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Thornton and Patrick Patterson led a furious fourth-quarter rally for the Kings. Notably, Patterson and Jason Thompson, who spent a lot of time playing with the bench unit, both outperformed previous Pickup Derrick Williams. It’s only his second game, but Williams is already experiencing why many panned this trade: there are way too many forwards on the Kings. Tonight, Williams, Patterson, Thompson, John Salmons and Chuck Hayes all played over 20 min, and that’s with Travis Outlaw on the bench and Carl Landry still to return. Though coach Mike Malone made a commitment to start and play Williams heavily at SF in his first game, it remains to be seen whether he keeps it up…Oh Reggie Jackson, you know I want to (18-5-4, 1 3pm), but I know you too well (24 min)…New Orleans fans, fantasy basketball owners, and plain old enjoyers of great NBA basketball cried in horror today as Anthony Davis fractured his left hand. There is no timetable yet for his return. Ryan Anderson joined the starting line-up coming out of the halftime break and is the obvious winner fantasy-wise. It gets cloudier after that, however. Fantasy owners would like starting center Jason Smith, who’s a superb midrange shooter and has had productive stretches this year, to gain more value, but he didn’t show that today. On the other hand, Al-Farouq Aminu sat out the entire first half but got a lot of run in the second. Right now, both are worth watching, but neither is worth adding.

Top 5 Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):

1. Marvin Williams (15%)
2. Kosta Koufos (26%)
3. Glen Davis (36%)
4. John Henson (35%)
5. Nate Robinson (26%)

As expected, we say goodbye to Jared Sullinger (42%) and Channing Frye (43%) tonight, as both graduate to the 40% owned club. Nate Robinson just edges out Marco Belinelli for the final spot on account of having been productive for longer.

Hindsight: I was completely wrong about Al Jefferson’s effect on Josh McRoberts. Despite playing well in his initial games next to Jefferson, McBob has seen his numbers drop across the board. That includes his already abysmal FG% and his life-saving assists and threes. This is simply a case of Jefferson taking over shots and possessions. McRoberts is droppable in all but the deepest formats…On the day I made Mo Williams the Pickup, he posted a 12-5-6-3-2 in 31 min. Since then, he hasn’t scored in double-digits or topped 24 min. Looking at his numbers before and after his five productive games in mid-November seems to tell me I fell for a fluke.

Pickup of the Day: Brandon Bass


(Jared Wickerham / Getty Images)

This season I will highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

The Sneaky Fantasy Basketball Pickup for Wednesday, November 27 is Brandon Bass. He’s owned in 35% of Yahoo! Leagues and 23.5% of ESPN Leagues. On a night with available pickups who’ve had far more explosive games recently (i.e. Jordan Farmar and Aaron Brooks, see Other Notable Players), I’m choosing certainty over upside with our Pickup.

Here’s a look at Bass’s line last night against Memphis:
20131127 Brandon Bass

Bass’s line (6-13-1-0-4) was downright Kosta Koufos-esque (7-13-1-1-3), but his shooting is usually better than this. In the three games since Kelly Olynyk sprained his right ankle, Bass has averaged 13.0 pts, 8.3 reb and 2.3 blk on 50.0% FG and a perfect 11-for-11 from the line. Olynyk was supposed to be out two weeks from the time of his injury on Nov. 23, but he was spotted in a walking boot tonight while his prognosis still seems to be two weeks from now. Keep Bass in your line-up until you see Olynyk playing and cutting into Bass’s value.

Is he legit? Bass had a fast start to this season and quickly rose above 40% before I had a chance to recommend him (plus there was the whole embarrassing part about me being enamored with Vitor Faverani). Boston then decided they’d rather see more of Olynyk and Jared Sullinger, and Bass saw his minutes slip to around 20 a game and lost his starting spot for two games before Olynyk’s injury. Now he seems determined to prove he deserves the minutes, even out-performing himself from earlier in the year. Bass was expected to be the veteran leader and defensive anchor for the Celtics coming into this season. Now he’s finally playing like he is.

Other Notable Players: Glen Davis really produced tonight, but the bigger news is that Jameer Nelson sprained his left foot and did not return. E’Twaun Moore took over and will be in line for more minutes and likely the start, though Victor Oladipo is the real winner here. Still, Moore averaged 11.0 pts, 3.4 reb, 4.9 ast and 1.4 3’s in 21 starts last season…Ed Davis and Jerryd Bayless both had their best games of the year. Marc Gasol’s injury may have opened up opportunities for more than just Kosta Koufos, but wait and see on those two…Kirk Hinrich and Tony Snell both fared much better in their second start together, while Mike Dunleavy dropped off significantly. Hinrich is still the best add here (assuming Jimmy Butler is already gone in your league), but I’m not ready to put Snell ahead of Dunleavy yet…Despite my misgivings about his game, it’s getting hard to ignore Nick Young when he drops 26 points with four threes tonight after averaging 14.7 pts, 1.3 stl and 2.0 3’s in his previous three games. Meanwhile, Jordan Farmar continues lighting it up off the bench. His hyper-productivity in limited minutes (21 mpg in past four) doesn’t seem sustainable, but he’s the 6th ranked Yahoo! player in the past seven days after factoring in tonight’s 15-4-3-2-2 with FIVE threes. Sneaky Steve Blake’s not in any trouble at all, but if you’ve got the roster space, Farmar’s worth a speculative add…Wish I could say the same about Shaun Livingston, but this is his fifth straight single-digit scoring effort, and Alan Anderson outplayed him tonight…Aaron Brooks, who had a great game four nights ago in James Harden’s first night sitting out, had another solid game tonight as Jeremy Lin suffered a right knee contusion. Either Brooks or Francisco Garcia will take over the starting spot if Lin misses time, though that’s also contingent on when James Harden returns. If I had to choose one, I’d pick the more multidimensional Brooks, though this should be Patrick Beverley’s time to prove he can put up more than just defense…Remember when I said Caron Butler was back and Khris Middleton would become useless? Just kidding! Almost tempted to recommend picking up Middleton, since he’s averaging 15.7 pts, 5.3 reb, 2.0 ast and 1.7 3’s on stellar percentages over his last three, but I still refuse to recommend any Bucks. Also, remember when I said John Henson was the only Buck resistant to coach Larry Drew’s mad rotations? Just kidding again!…Nate Robinson: 13.3 pts, 2.0 reb, 2.8 ast, 2.5 3’s over his last four. He’s starting to find his groove off the bench for the Nuggets and was extremely productive in this role last year for the Bulls, though that team was far more offensively challenged…Check out Reggie Jackson with the 23-4-2 game on 71.4% FG and 100% FT! And that’s with Russell Westbrook in the line-up! At 14.0 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.5 ast and 1.0 stl over his last four, he’s a much more versatile weapon off the bench than Jeremy Lamb is. Unlike Robinson, however, I don’t see Jackson’s value as rising so much as fluctuating. I love Jackson’s talent, but he’ll have to exhibit much more consistency playing with Westbrook in the line-up before I trust him again…Samuel Dalembert returned to the starting line-up, but DeJuan Blair stayed productive with a 10-9-2 (stl). Unfortunately, he’s averaging only 19:16 mpg over his last four games while he saw 24:25 mpg over his first four, although his stats haven’t dropped by much. Still a sneaky source of steals from the C-spot…Channing Frye25-9-2-1-2, 3 triples, 83.3% FG, 100% FT. After Big Baby and Brandon Knight, I really needed a Pickup to pan out. The running joke is still that Eric Bledsoe was going to play and then didn’t, and that joke will continue on Friday. Regardless, if Frye is still available in your league, his upside is too high to let Bledsoe’s return worry you…Markieff Morris dropped back below 40% owned, but Marcus Morris has actually been the more productive twin recently with a better FG% and more threes. Markieff had the better game tonight yet somehow finished with a +/- of 0 while Marcus finished with +29 despite both coming off the bench. Wonder if that’s a Yahoo! typo…Raymond Felton returned to the line-up, and Beno Udrih plummeted from 31 min to three. Well, it was frustratingly inconsistent while it lasted…Matt Barnes remained out, but Jared Dudley did not deliver, even while playing 35 min. Usually he does enough small things to still be valuable when he’s not scoring, but he doesn’t seem to be having those opportunities on the Clippers. 

Top 5 Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):

1. Channing Frye (25%)
2. Jared Sullinger (35%)
3. Marvin Williams (7%)
4. Glen Davis (32%)
5. Kosta Koufos (25%)

Remember how I told you not to sweat Bledsoe coming back and to pick up Frye with confidence because he’s balling out of this world? I’m taking my own advice. Frye’s been held off this list for way too long. Meanwhile, Beverley needs to prove he has more fantasy value than Aaron Brooks before I’ll consider putting him back. Had to push Sullinger up after a strong performance tonight, while Koufos’s lack of scoring and FG% are troubling.

Hindsight: Josh McRoberts has been terrible lately, but I wasn’t lying about his FG% playing next to Al Jefferson. 50.0% in five games with Jefferson, 31.9% in five games without. The problem is he’s averaging only 6.8 FGA since Jefferson’s return…Harrison Barnes was definitely the guy who took over for Iguodala, while Draymond Green has gotten worse after bumping up to sixth man…Mo Williams, he is not back.

There are no games tomorrow night, so have a Happy Thanksgiving and see you all on Friday!

Pickup of the Day: Marvin Williams

(AP Photo / Rick Bowmer)

This season I will highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

The Sneaky Fantasy Basketball Pickup for Monday, November 25 is Marvin Williams. He’s owned in 6% of Yahoo! Leagues and 5.8% of ESPN Leagues, which is the closest I’ve ever seen fantasy owners in the two formats agreeing. Unfortunately, this is a short week for Utah, which doesn’t have another game until Friday. At that point Enes Kanter will have returned to the line-up, but Williams has done enough recently to merit a roster spot.

Here’s a look at his line last night against Chicago:
20131125 Marvin Williams

That’s an above-average but not atypical line from Williams, who’s averaged 14.0 pts, 6.2 reb, 1.2 stl, 2.2 3’s and only 0.8 TO in his last five games. He’s been coming on stronger lately, first jumping over Alec Burks in the rotation to become the sixth man and then pushing Enes Kanter to the bench to become the starting PF.

Kanter missed this game with a sore ankle, which explains Williams’s 44 minutes. Rudy Gobert is the high upside pick when either Kanter or Derrick Favors misses time, but last night was the first time Gobert has even topped 16 min all season. Kanter returns this Friday, and there’s no news yet whether he or Williams starts, but Williams has been productive long enough to justify a fantasy roster spot regardless.

Is he legit? Ah, Marvin Williams. He will forever be the guy drafted ahead of Chris Paul. And Deron Williams. And Andrew Bynum. And Danny Granger, David Lee, Monta Ellis, Marcin Gortat, Ersan Ilyasova, Raymond Felton, Amir Johnson and about a half dozen other players from the 2005 draft class who turned out to be more productive NBA players than he has. Williams perfected his three-point shot this year, but otherwise he hasn’t changed much as a player, a guy who’ll score in the teens and grab 5-6 rebounds while shooting mediocre percentages. This year, Williams is shooting his best percentage yet from three and his worst from the line. He’s not an exciting player, but he’s a serviceable “3 & D” guy in the Martell Webster/Gerald Green mold.

Other Notable Players: Back on the Brandon Bass bandwagon everybody! In the two games since reclaiming a starting spot after Kelly Olynyk sprained his ankle, Bass has posted a 17-7 and a 16-5 in over 30 min. Olynyk is out for at least another week and a half…Gerald Wallace is hovering at 40% owned right and just had a good game. His first good game in the last seven. He should be owned less…Josh McRoberts: 5-7-5-1-1, one three. Despite everything else, it’s getting hard to ignore his lack of points and awful shooting. I still argue his value is higher next to Al Jefferson, but keep an eye on him…Non-pickups news: Brandon Jennings is averaging a career-high 8.4 apg. What he was missing most of his career were people to pass it to…It’s getting hard to practice patience about ignoring the Bucks starters’ minutes during blowouts when they’re getting blown out of every game. John Henson seems to have the most stable value (15-7-1-2-2 tonight), though Khris Middleton was productive after being moved into the starting line-up over Caron Butler. You should just ignore all Bucks other than Henson until coach Larry Drew figures it out. But hang on to Brandon Knight for now…I’ve been getting warmer and warmer on him, but now I’m just telling you to go pick up Channing Frye. I’m not sure what Eric Bledsoe’s return on Wednesday will mean for him, but it should affect Gerald Green a lot more than Frye…Bench mob alert in Houston! Omri Casspi scored 16 pts and Omer Asik actually saw 21 min, his most in over two weeks. No need to pick either up, but watch how the latter might affect Terrence Jones’s value…Kosta Koufos: 8-13-2-0-2 in 30 min in his first start during Marc Gasol’s two-month hiatus. Koufos will stay at the top of the Top 5 tonight…DeJuan Blair got the start tonight, but he still couldn’t crack 20 min, his average this season. This not a permanent move, as Samuel Dalembert only didn’t start because he missed practice, but he’ll get you some surprisingly steals numbers from the C position if you can afford to keep him in your line-up…Boris Diaw had an excellent 13-5-2-1 game night as he played the Henson role of bench player with starter minutes who stays productive even in a blowout. I was ready to make him the Pickup after Tiago Splitter sprained his ankle and didn’t return, but Rotoworld is reporting that Splitter didn’t return only because it was a blowout, not because of the injury…The season just keeps getting worse for the Chicago Bulls, who lost Derrick Rose for the season after surgery this morning (Remember when Greg Oden only played 82 games in three seasons? After this season, Rose will have only played 50 in three, albeit one was lockout shortened to 66). Now the Bulls have lost to the 2-14 Utah Jazz, the team with the worst record in the league. Neither Kirk Hinrich, Mike Dunleavy, nor new starter Tony Snell could get anything going for their backcourt…And tonight Beno Udrih is good again (13-5-5-1, 3 3’s). I need to see more…Not really Pickup news because none of the players involved are under 40% owned, but important nonetheless. Some people may have dropped Martell Webster upon hearing news that Trevor Ariza is back and will return to the starting line-up. Now Bradley Beal may miss extended time after an MRI today revealed he aggravated the same leg injury that ended his rookie season last year. Pick Webster back up immediately, as he’ll become the starting SG if Beal is out. Deep leaguers may also want to keep an eye on Otto Porter Jr., the Wizards’ third overall pick this year, and Chris Singleton, who had productive games for them last year. Both returned to practice today as well.

Top 5 Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):

1. Kosta Koufos (22%)
2. Jared Sullinger (34%)
3. Marvin Williams (6%)
4. Glen Davis (30%)
5. Patrick Beverley (31%)

Taking my own advice and avoiding Brandon Knight and all other non-Henson Bucks for the time being. Mo Williams also dropped, not because of his suspension but because, after three lousy games, I have to go with the lower-upside but also higher-downside Beverley.

Hindsight: Those last two Pickups, Glen Davis and Brandon Knight, are looking like 0-2 so far…Gerald Green and Channing Frye should’ve been in the Top 5 every day for the last two weeks, but I kept getting nervous about when Eric Bledsoe would be back to pull the trigger. Now Bledsoe is reportedly back on Wednesday, and I never got to pop off any rounds.

Pickup of the Day: Glen Davis

(Steve Mitchell / USA TODAY Sports)

This season I will highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

The Sneaky Fantasy Basketball Pickup for Saturday, November 23 is Glen Davis. He’s owned in 14% of Yahoo! Leagues and 0.1% of ESPN Leagues, although his Yahoo! ownership already rose 4% as I wrote this entry. As for ESPN, I really wonder if they’re just a bunch of 8 and 10 team leagues, as there are an astounding number of solid waiver wire players who are literally under 1% owned.

Anyway, here’s a look at Big Baby’s line tonight against Miami:
20131123 Glen Davis

First of all, if you need a PG, your Pickup tonight should be Brandon Knight. I tell you this because he’s already owned in 38% of Yahoo! Leagues and is thus harder to acquire than Big Baby. He doesn’t get the top spot tonight because he’s never been great at getting assists (the premium stat that you want from your PG), his shooting has always been poor, and I imagine him initially to be in more of a timeshare with Luke Ridnour. Still, he is talented, and the Bucks were willing to let Brandon Jennings go to have Knight and his rookie salary instead.

On the other hand, Davis is not part of Orlando’s future. I expect him to displace mis-positioned Moe Harkless as the starting PF, but Harkless is part of Orlando’s future, so the team may want to keep him in as a starter for continuity. Coach Jacque Vaughn wouldn’t even commit to starting Tobias Harris, a better player than either Davis or Harkless, over Harkless when Harris returns from injury.

So why do I believe in Glen Davis? In two words: Arron Afflalo. In five: Arron Afflalo and Jameer Nelson. Neither of these players are part of Orlando’s future either, but Afflalo is averaging 36 mpg (and having a career year) while Nelson is getting 31 mpg (and looking like he should be a backup). The common belief is that Orlando is shopping these two players and thus letting other teams get a good look at them play, which may explain why Afflalo is playing out of position at SF while Nelson and Victor Oladipo try to mesh in the backcourt despite the Magic announcing they wanted to try Oladipo at PG.

That’s why I believe the Magic will put Big Baby in the starting line-up and give him the same treatment, letting him increase his own trade value as much as possible. Obviously, there’s no way to predict what Afflalo, Nelson and Davis’s values will be if and when they get traded, but, for now, Orlando seems content to let them run amok.

Other Notable Players: Patrick Patterson put up an effective 21-7 line with Jason Thompson limited to only 10 min with foul trouble. Neither had actually been too effective even in more minutes previously, though Patterson is better at avoiding fouls. No action should be taken yet for Patterson…Jared Dudley only posted 11-2-2, albeit with 3 3’s, but his value is on the rise with Barnes still out for two weeks with a retinal tear…The starters in Philly got the green light to chuck the ball up tonight with both Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes out. Take James Anderson for instance, who launched 10 threes and only connected on one. He finished with a decent 13-5-1-3-1 line if you ignore the abysmal 4 for 18 shooting. Daniel Orton continued to start in place of Young, but, with Hawes also out, he actually played 35 min (most of his career) and posted a 10-10-1-0-2 (also his first career double-double). The former Kentucky teammate of DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall was annihilated by Roy Hibbert, however, and posted the lowest +/- of anyone in the game (-21). The Sixers will continue favoring Lavoy Allen over him, but neither Young (personal reasons) nor Hawes (sore knee) are expected out much longer…The big winner of Raymond Felton’s injury in New York seems to be absolutely no one. After posting a 19 pts & 8 ast in his last game, Beno Udrih came way back to earth with 6 pts & 3 ast. Iman Shumpert, Pablo Prigioni and Tim Hardaway Jr. all also failed to step up as the lowly Knicks were spanked by the slightly less lowly Wizards. Probably could’ve used that Linsanity guy tonight…One night after I criticized his lack of assists, Jordan Crawford goes out and drops 10 dimes to go with 12 pts and 3 reb (and 4 tov). Brandon Bass, whose ownership has actually dropped down to 33%, had his first good game in his last four with Kelly Olynyk out for possibly two weeks with a sprained ankle. Seems Bass, and not Vitor Faverani, will be the one to absorb the available minutes Olynyk is leaving on the floor. Jared Sullinger’s value was unaffected…With James Harden missing tonight and Monday with a foot injury, both Patrick Beverley (17-3-2, 5 3’s) and Jeremy Lin (19-5-5-2-1, 2 3’s, 5 tov) had good games, but the real story for Houston was Aaron Brooks (26-4-5-2, 6 3’s, 4 tov) coming out of nowhere and lighting up the Wolves. He’s got a Nate Robinson feel to him, and, once upon a time (in 2010), Brooks had tremendous value for Houston and even won the Most Improved Player award. Yet tonight is likely to be his best game of this year unless Lin or Beverley also miss extended time…In the four recent games that Al Jefferson sat out, Josh McRoberts averaged 31.0% FG. In the two games with Jefferson back so far, McRoberts has shot 40.0% and 71.4%. The assists weren’t there tonight, but he is a better player next to Jefferson…Don’t look too deeply into either the Bucks’ starters having crappy games across the board or Khris Middleton and John Henson having good games off the bench. The Bucks were getting demolished. As stated above, you should just pay attention to Brandon Knight’s return, as he’s likely to clear 40% owned by tomorrow…By the same token as the Bucks game, discount any fantasy-related notions you may have from the Cleveland-San Antonio box score, as the Cavs were obliterated. The only thing you should know is that Jarrett Jack left with a neck strain and didn’t return, although that may be because the Cavs were down by 30 for most of the night…Mo Williams already had two straight bad games coming into tonight, and now he’s got three. This time, though, it was due to him being tossed for instigating a fight with Andrew Bogut. This fight also got Draymond Green and Wesley Matthews ejected. We’ll have to wait until Williams’s next game, assuming he’s not suspended, to see if his value bumps up again.

Top 5 Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):

1. Kosta Koufos (15%)
2. Glen Davis (14%)
3. Brandon Knight (38%)
4. Jared Sullinger (32%)
5. Mo Williams (25%)

Two soon-to-be starters bum-rush their way onto list as they return from injury. Do I expect them to be better than those guys below them? Not necessarily, but Davis and Knight are proven commodities who should soon be receiving starting duties now that they’re back with their teams.

Hindsight: I don’t think you can really put too much of Metta World Peace’s disappearance on me when the entire Knicks team has turned into a black hole for fantasy.

Pickup of the Day: Josh McRoberts

(Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

This season I will highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s available in at least 60% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

The Sneaky Fantasy Basketball Pickup for Monday, November 18 is Josh McRoberts. He’s owned in 17% of Yahoo! Leagues and 4.7% of ESPN Leagues. Really, I wanted to pick Mo Williams again, but that would’ve been redundant. McRoberts is at the head of the Top Five, so he kind of gets the nod by default.

And with that sterling endorsement, here’s a look at his line tonight against Toronto:
20131118

McRoberts again was a great source of threes and assists from the center position. He now leads all C-eligible players in assists on the season (4.7), and he and Kevin Love (4.5 apg) are the only centers who average more than four assists and a three per game. Of course, Love hits almost three 3-pointers a game and crushes McBobby in points, rebounds and percentages, but we’re cherry-picking stats here to make my guy look good.

Where McRoberts really hurts you, however, is field goal percentage. He’s averaging 37.5% for the year, and barely has more games shooting over 40% FG (three) than games shooting 0% FG (two). Taking a look at his shot chart, we find McRoberts is actually a terrible shot except from the left block and at the top of the key. He’s an especially atrocious 17.6% from midrange.

However, one positive is that McRoberts actually had two of his best games of his season (17-5-5, 4.0 3’s, 54.5% FG) playing next to Al Jefferson. Having Jefferson drawing defensive attention down low freed up easy shots for McRoberts. While conventional wisdom may be that playing with Jefferson will cut into McRoberts’s production, the exact opposite has been true so far. Jefferson could be back in the line-up as early as this Wednesday, and McRoberts owners should be hoping for nothing less.

Is he legit? Josh McRoberts’s line is like nothing I have ever seen from the center position: 37.5% FG, 76.9% FT, 1.7 3’s, 9.3 pts, 4.7 reb, 4.7 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.5 blk, 1.8 tov. He’s like a backup guard that can’t shoot.

Take a look at his per-minute numbers, and you’ll realize he has never played like this in his entire professional career, even last year when he was also in Charlotte. Ignoring his rookie season in which he played 28 total min across eight games, this is how his Per-36 minutes numbers in previous years compare to this one:

In rebounds, he averaged between 7.9-9.5 in previous years. This year he’s averaging 5.7. In assists, he averaged between 2.1-3.4 in previous years. This year he’s averaging 5.9. In three pointers attempted, he averaged between 0.4-2.0 in previous years. This year he’s averaging 5.3.

I don’t know what to predict out of this season. I can say McRoberts’s career field goal and rebound rates are better than this, but his career three-pointer and assist rates are also worse. Is there a balance, or is this just who he is now? Like I said, his FG% should go up as soon as Jefferson gets back, and he seems to be locked into 29-30 mpg. McRoberts’s numbers may be strange this year, but no doubt they will be useful.

Other Notable Players: 12-5-6-3-2 in 30 min from Mo Williams tonight. He’s legit and climbing into my Top Five…Speaking of PG’s, 23-2-2 from Shaun Livingston tonight on 8-14 FG and 7-7 FT and, as expected, not much else (one steal)…McRoberts wasn’t the only productive Bobcat. Jeffery Taylor dropped 20 points with two threes, and has scored in double digits and averaged over 29 min in his past five games. His contributions in non-points categories are inconsistent, to put it politely…Kirk Hinrich didn’t score much, but he still got 25 min and led the Bulls in assists. It’s hard to rely on him at this point unless we see an utter collapse by Derrick Rose…After J.J. Hickson’s 18-19-2-1-2 tonight, you may feel completely safe dropping Timofey Mozgov. There is no more C controversy in Denver (cut to Mozgov dropping a 20-10 while Hickson gets 20 min off the bench on Thu)…There’s no way the Thunder don’t exercise their team option on Reggie Jackson next summer, but I’d love to see him on a team that’ll give him 35 mpg…Another good game from Tony Wroten, while James Anderson yo-yo’s his way back to respectability. With MCW planning to return on Wednesday, however, you may be seeing the final acts of their set…It’s a shame Toney Douglas is still out with a stress reaction in his left tibia, as he’d be the obvious benefactor if Stephen Curry turns out to be dealing with the dreaded c-word (concussion, what were you thinking?). Without Douglas, though, I’m not even sure who runs the offense. Kent BazemoreNemanja Nedovic? Or do they go no PG (like Utah has disastrously), let Iggy bring the ball up the court and just move Harrison Barnes into the starting line-up?…In three of his last four games, Marvin Williams has played over 26 min and averaged nearly a 14-8 with 2.3 threes. In that fourth game, he sucked, but this is a situation to monitor in case Richard Jefferson or Alec Burks (or both) drop off (like both did tonight)…No, it’s not Diante Garrett time yet…Kosta Koufos put up an impressive 10-9-2-2-4 line on 5 of 5 shooting in just 18 min. He’s not getting nearly enough minutes to matter right now, but he did provide decent value, especially in blocks, in spurts last year with Denver…With news that  Metta World Peace has gotten his knee drained and Raymond Felton is taking medication for a pinched nerve, we may be seeing more Iman Shumpert as ballhandler. I’m not buying the hype on Pablo Prigioni or Tim Hardaway Jr., but then I didn’t buy the hype on Andrea Bargnani either…On the opposite end of the spectrum, Kobe Bryant has already returned to Lakers practice and been cleared for all basketball activities. There is still no timetable for his return, but when he does, both Steve Blake and Jodie Meeks’s values will slip.

Top 5 Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):
1. Josh McRoberts (17%)
2. Jodie Meeks (26%)
3. Martell Webster (29%)
4. Terrence Jones (23%)
5. Mo Williams (22%)

Hindsight: One thing I completely overlooked when choosing Andray Blatche as the Pickup of the Day on Saturday: how much less crucial he’d be with Kevin Garnett on the team. While Blatche was invaluable to the Nets last year when Brook Lopez got injured, this year KG and Reggie Evans are keeping Blatche in a bench role. He still had a decent 10-5-1-2-2 line in 22 min, but he’s not worthy of starting for your fantasy team when he’s benched on his real team.

Pickup of the Day: Jordan Crawford

(AP Photo / Charles Krupa)

This season I will try to highlight a notable player, based on the games played each night, who’s available in at least 60% of Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball leagues.

The Sneaky Fantasy Basketball Pickup for Monday, November 11 is Jordan Crawford. Really, the Pickup should be Zaza Pachulia again, but it feels too early in the season to repeat a previous Pickup, so we’ll save Pachulia for Other Notable Pickups (see below). Meanwhile, we’ll stick with Crawford as our main guy, who’s 17% owned and will be rising significantly after dropping a surprising double-double on the Magic.

Here’s a look at his line tonight against Orlando:
20131111 Jordan Crawford

The number that jumps out the most is the 10 assists. Crawford has been averaging 10 more minutes per game since replacing Gerald Wallace in the starting line-up, but that wasn’t the his only break. Boston coach Brad Stevens also quickly realized Avery Bradley was not a PG and handed the car keys to Crawford.

He certainly responded strongly with 16-5-10, a steal, great percentages and–most impressively for a newly minted PG–ZERO turnovers. The far more widely owned Bradley didn’t do terribly either, putting up 24 points and 3 steals with great percentages…and absolutely no other positive stats. It’s too early to say both players won from this switch in roles, but this arrangement certainly worked tonight.

Is he legit? My impression of Jordan Crawford had always been that of the chucker on the Wizards. He didn’t get many opportunities to establish a new impression in his first year in Boston, but he’s getting a chance this year to carve out a role on this new tanking leaner Celtics team. For example, I’m pretty sure Crawford has never had a 10:0 assists-to-turnover ratio in his entire professional career. That number won’t last, but it’s not entirely flukey either. So far this year Crawford is having the lowest turnover rate of his career. He’s also producing his lowest personal foul rate along with his best FT% and assist rate. This really does look like a new, smarter Jordan Crawford than the guy who shot without conscience in Washington. His value’s going to fall when Rajon Rondo comes back, but who knows when that’ll be? Also, if Boston becomes as bad as everyone expects them to be, what would even be the point of bringing Rondo back early and playing him late? Pick up Crawford, and see how far he can takes his career this year.

Other Notable Players: On to the real story: the fact that Zaza Pachulia is still only 35% owned. He’s been a Top 5 Sneaky Pickup since we’ve had a Top 5, and he’s been the top Pickup ever since Larry Sanders got into a barfight. Well turns out Sanders will require surgery for the thumb injury he suffered while cracking champagne bottles over dudes’ heads, so he’ll be out for six weeks. This also boosts John Henson’s value, at least until Ersan Ilyasova returns, but Pachulia is now more a lock than ever. PICK. HIM. UP…Al Jefferson returned to the line-up for the Bobcats, and Josh McRoberts returned to fantasy relevance with a 19-6-7 line and 5 threes. This is by far his best game of the year, but he’s been plagued by inconsistency even when he receives large minutes. When he is on, though, he’s a surprising source of assists and threes from the PF spot…For some reason, Kelly Olynyk is 43% owned despite his mediocre play. Well he certainly rewarded fantasy owners that stuck with him with a solid 16-7-5 tonight, but Jared Sullinger played nearly as well in around the same minutes. Sullinger’s role is more versatile, though, as he can be a fill-in for Olynyk, Brandon Bass or Jeff Green. I’m a broken record now, but the Sullinger revolution is coming…Steve Nash is reported to be out for two weeks to recuperate from nerve root irritation in his back. This is Steve Blake’s time, but, if he struggles, keep an eye on Jordan Farmar, too…The confirmed winner of the JaVale McGee Is Injured contest is J.J. Hickson. He’s already 39% owned, so snatch him up quickly…Derrick Rose limped out of the Bulls game and didn’t return, but his injury is being reported as a minor hamstring tweak. Don’t go out and pick up Kirk Hinrich. Unless you just love Kirk Hinrich. Then who am I to stop you?

Top 5 Sneaky Pickups (owned in under 40% of Yahoo! Leagues):
1. Zaza Pachulia (35%)
2. Steve Blake (27%)
3. Metta World Peace (32%)
4. Jordan Crawford (17%)
5. Corey Brewer (28%)

Accountability: Nothing about my Pickups this time, but rather two offhand comments I made about players whose ownerships are way too high for this blog. First, Andrew Bynum looks less like a complete bust now that he’s had a fairly successful start. 11-6-2 with two blocks in almost 21 min is a big win for him. Second, Jeremy Lin was once again the better fantasy PG in Houston, and that’s a huge understatement after he had a spectacular 31-point game reminiscent of his Linsanity days against the Raptors (albeit with zero assists). Meanwhile, Patrick Beverley missed all five of his shots from the field. I have no idea if Lin’s relationships with James Harden and Dwight Howard are still tense, but let’s just forget I ever doubted he was the Rockets PG you wanted on your fantasy team.